This valuable article raises, directly and indirectly, some very important issues:
(1) The Labor Party splits are even more profound than previously thought. “Momentum” (referred to several times in the article) is a grass roots movement set up recently to try and ensure that Labor wins the next General Election (which Corbyn believes to be imminent). The key young people in Momentum spend their time working in the Parliamentary constituencies that they believe would, at a new election, be ready to elect a Labor instead of a Conservative to Parliament
(2) Labor needs to win 64 seats (without losing any of its current seats) to secure an absolute majority in Westminster. It could then govern without a coalition and be free to do what it wants
(3) A careful look at the table in the article shows the 4 main issues that interest the big, institutional supporters (Trade Unions chiefly) and the 4 that interest local constituencies (ordinary families). The article makes little comment on this table. Yet it can be seen there is no overlap whatsoever between the 2 lists. What one group wants is of no significant interest to the other. In fact, the big groups are motivated entirely by sectional interests (higher pay in the public sector, obviously of central importance to public sector unions), whereas the ordinary individuals are motivated by the provision of national public goods (the health service)
(4) So Labor is split on much more than Brexit. It could be that the Tory Party does not have that kind of problem. Put differently: the overwhelming split of the Tory party is Brexit, while Labor has many more splits. Does the one huge Troy split do more damage in the eyes of prospective voters than the many smaller splits (or degrees of preference) in the Labor party?
(5) The National Executive Committee (strongly pro Corbyn) has ensured that there will be no Vote on Brexit. This of course fools nobody, since it is known that Labor is seriously divided by Brexit (just as the Tory Party). For Corbyn, the core thing is that then he can focus electoral issues entirely on his internal program. He can continue to try and persuade people that the economic and financial viability of the internal program is completely independent of the external economic relations of the country. Even more, while the country’s overall economic performance is collapsing, and everyone (especially the economically weaker segments of society) is becoming poorer, Corbyn can still claim that he is pursuing policies that would make society more just. In other words, the only thing that matters is social justice.
(6) This interpretation is supported by the remarks in the article attributed to the man who would be Minister of Finance in a Labor Government. Redistribution is everything
(7) In a good Special Brief on Labor and Corbyn published in this week’s Economist (hence dated Thursday 21 September), several people interviewed for the Brief note that, if a comparison is made of the Labor political position on social security, nationalization of public utilities (like water, gas etc), tax rates on higher levels of income, etc, the UK Labor party is in fact well in line with what social democrat parties in a number of other EU countries do. Labor only appears “radical” because of the enormous grip, in the media and elsewhere, of an (imagined but not always practized) wild liberalism in the UK
(8) Corbyn is, as the article shows, keeping tight discipline in the Labor Party. He is building a machine to obtain power. He sees the EU issue as being on the fringe – it is troublesome, and he is seeking to minimize the trouble. His objective seems to be – a fairer society in one country, irrespective of the level at which greater fairness prevails
(9) From the tweet by Sturgeon, she indicates that Labor and SNP are not at all on the same wavelength. In fact, just at the end of last week, a new head of the Labor Party in Scotland was elected. This man is totally on the same wavelength as Corbyn. It is therefore not clear if Labor and SNP would have the same approach to the EU. The likelihood is not
(10) There seems to be considerable optimism on the part of the pro EU people in Labor that free movement of people can be preserved.
So this week the 2 main parties hold their annual conferences. Before October, Labor expects to have a fully functioning political machine to gain power, and will achieve this by trying to bury Brexit under the carpet. The Tory Party, on the other hand, continues with Brexit in the front line, shredding its political machine. If the Tory mess at home, inevitably coupled with ongoing nonsense vis-a-vis Brussels, brings about a loss in Parliament and thus a General election, the key question then will be whether Momentum can do enough to give Labor a secure majority.
