Part 1: “The Context”
Around March/April each year, a typical English household engages in “spring cleaning”. This laudable sounding activity is supposed to accomplish two things. One is to remove accumulated dust and dirt brought in by winter. The other, more significant, aim is to throw out older objects, no longer deemed fit for purpose. On occasion, the latter effort requires restructuring the house, a project that could stretch over the year, cost more time and resources, have wider consequences, and could lead to problems with the neighbors. The expected return on that larger investment is easier bouts of spring cleaning in future years. But in these times when the effects of climate change are being felt far more quickly than even the most sophisticated forecasts had suggested, the seasonal calendar is all topsy-turvy. Instead of sorting out their political mess at the start of spring, the English have opted to do so at the beginning of Autumn. And, as befits a new order of operations, the bout of cleaning which is commencing promises to go far beyond earlier annual activities.
WHO ARE THE REAL BORIS JOHNSONS?
To understand the cleaning, we need to know two things: who is managing and carrying out the business, and how much will be cleaned. The answer to the first is easy – it’s Bojo. The answer to the second is, crudely put, almost everything and everybody. Since it is the manager who decides on the extent of the enterprise, and the methods (for instance, detergents – Johnsons is a widely used cleaning agent -, incendiary devices, reliance on new materials) that will be employed, the key to assessing the major projects just beginning is to figure out what Bojo is trying to achieve.
Up till now, the standard evaluation of the man has been to describe him as an ambitious, mendacious, somewhat charismatic clown, not good at mastering detail, “totally unfit to govern”. This description may well have much more than the proverbial grain of truth to it. Yet a moment’s reflection tells us that this picture is way short of being complete. Instead of concentrating so much attention on the disdain he showed for the EU during his years as a journalist in Brussels, or the highly uneven quality of his pseudo historical writings (such as the panegyric on Churchill, his role model), or the extent of his womanizing, we should also look at some other aspects of his professional career and personality.
His political ambitions were clear from at least 20 years ago. His first attempt to be elected as a Member of Parliament did not succeed, but the second did. From 2001 to 2008 the Conservative Party was in opposition. Johnson was appointed to a couple of “shadow minister” roles in that period, but nothing of note occurred. In 2008 he decided to stand as conservative candidate to be mayor of London. The very fact that he stood for the job indicates his belief that he could handle a huge endeavor. And that he could persuade people. To be elected in the first place, he had to defeat the Labor politician Ken Livingstone, a man whose claims to an iconic status with the English political left certainly exceed those of Jeremy Corbyn. And to be re-elected, he had to again defeat the same opponent. He took the post while the Labor Party was in power under Tony Blair; during his first term as Mayor the financial crash did not ease his task; and though the Conservative party did regain power, it only did so via a coalition with the Liberal Democrats – and the English do not like consensus building or coalitions. So it was not all plain sailing. Boris Johnson could as a minimum claim that he does not shirk tricky situations.
What did Bojo do as Mayor? Almost certainly his most striking performance was to attract substantial additional foreign investment, direct as well as portfolio, into a city already famous as a cosmopolitan magnet. He accomplished this through tireless global travel, a sort of charm offensive by a figure whom non-English people found it hard to dislike. A large part of the investment came from EU countries. Indeed, things seemed to be bouncing along. True, the 2012 Olympics Games had chosen London as venue well before Bojo was elected Mayor. But their actual celebration was universally recognized as outstanding, and the Mayor must take at least some of the credit for that. More generally, the city was still absorbing substantial numbers of workers from other EU countries (recall that several of the newer EU member States, as well as those in southern Europe, went through very tough economic struggles around 2010/2012, and emigration from them was on a relatively huge scale).
The anti-immigration stance adopted by Theresa May and Nigel Farage has never been much to Bojo’s liking. Those two are the archetypes of the narrow English mentality. Boris sees himself as an exponent of global attitudes. His selfie probably depicts the 21st century man echoing the famous phrase of his namesake of four centuries earlier, Dr Samuel Johnson, who said “the man who is tired of London is tired of living”.
In the city itself, Bojo portrayed flamboyance on his bike as a means of campaigning for a cleaner city, and hopefully reducing some of the notorious transport difficulties from which London has long suffered. Improvements to the metro system were made, several public monuments were significantly upgraded, parks were enhanced, and other dimensions of the public face of the city were similarly made to look better.
Of course there were plenty of things which could be, and were, strongly criticized under Bojo’s stewardship. The divide between rich and poor was perceived to widen, due mostly to the influx of rich foreigners driving up house prices. Affordable accommodation in the city, whether for purchase or rent, was hard to find. So much so that suburban was a word that took on a far wider meaning. Cases of people working in London, but primarily living a long distance away (such as Barcelona) and flying in on low cost airlines, were no longer so rare. Some of the “deals” that were made through public tenders and otherwise did not have a pleasant smell. And the current Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, who succeeded Johnson, underlined that the transport situation had in fact worsened in the preceding years. Still, a reasonable evaluation of Bojo’s tenancy as mayor could not be especially harsh. A comparison with periods in office of mayors of other great cities of the world might well show that, in fact, Bojo did a more than respectable job, all things considered.
The end of his eight years as Mayor was coming up as the 2015 general election was to take place in the UK. He decided to present himself as conservative party candidate in a constituency which was reckoned to be fairly easy to win. That decision was, most likely, well thought out. His ambition to be Prime Minister was clearly visible. To do that, he had to be an MP. Once in Parliament, Bojo knew as did everyone else that the crucial question that would be decided by referendum in 2016 was that of continued membership of the EU. So his approach to that matter became the most important next step for him. He did not take the step quickly or lightly. As with anything in politics, decisions mean risks (and the risky decisions naturally include not making one – a fact which appears to be lost on Jeremy Corbyn).
In retrospect, his last minute choice to campaign for “Leave” appears eminently sensible and level-headed (an epithet rarely applied to Bojo). Think about it. Everyone was wondering, quite publicly, what will Bojo do? So he knew that he commanded real influence – his actions mattered. David Cameron’s government, of which Bojo had been careful not to be part, left all conservative MPs with a free choice. So whatever he did, he could not be accused of betraying anybody. Moreover, his endless (and invariably ill- informed) scribblings against the EU over the years (an EU which by the time of the English referendum had three times as many member States as when Bojo started griping), made it tricky to campaign for remain.
Nigel Farage and others had for years done plenty of muckraking, something Boris prefers to avoid (though he can of course shovel it if the occasion requires). For an actual campaign, therefore, he had to take a cleaner looking route. This could be done by working with quite moderate people. He went with Michael Gove, who had done a decent job as Minister in the Cameron government, and Gisela Stuart, herself a German by birth. A slogan had to be chosen. Bojo picked on one (true to character, utterly false yet enticing) related to government expenditures and the National Health Service. He then toured the country on a bus proclaiming the lie. With face to face contact with voters, he could be confident he would score well. Maybe he also imagined that, like himself, many people did not want to be burdened with details. What mattered was to give people a sense that they were important.
Victory in the referendum produced more immediate risks. He now had little choice except to indicate that, following Cameron’s resignation, he would stand for internal election (within the conservative party) as Prime Minister. Here he probably benefited from a large slice of good luck. Michael Gove declared that he considered Bojo not to be up to the job – and also declared that he himself would be a candidate. So Bojo withdrew his candidature. That turned out to be a masterstroke. Why? Because none of the “Leave” camp, not to mention the voters, had a clue what membership of the EU entailed and still less had any idea what they wanted to obtain through leaving. That situation has scarcely altered over the past three and a half years. Hence avoiding the PM job meant avoiding major responsibility for the mess that was likely to follow. The scene was gradually being prepared for today’s cleaning.
The decision by Theresa May to call another general election in 2017 was another major piece of luck. The result left her in a significantly weakened position, especially because she was now in hock to a handful of Ulster Unionists. Given that Ireland was always at the center of negotiations with the EU, and given her own English isolationism and astonishing deafness to political music, that election outcome ensured that EU negotiations would be exceptionally tense. Bojo could, however, feel on fairly safe ground in accepting the post of Foreign Minister in May bis. By doing so he would once more appear as a team player (which of course he is not), and could use the publicity and opportunities to show the English public that their attitudes would be represented. Here too, circumstances were in Bojo’s favor.
Theresa May does share one characteristic with other politicians, namely a grossly inflated sense of her own capabilities and importance. She is also very secretive, and a poor communicator. This combination added up to a situation where she wanted to keep everything for herself. She would claim all the glory if things went well. But the risk was that failure would land on her doorstep. Thus, as internal difficulties mounted, Bojo could appear loyal – he voted three times for her deal – while picking the time to resign as Foreign Minister. With Theresa May’s political suicide/murder over, the way was clear.
ACTION
The cleaning and restructuring program which Bojo is now starting is not something which is being made up as it goes along. On the contrary, most of the elements had been shaped before his arrival on the scene. That said, his own preferences will play a strong role in how things develop. And good fortune, with which Bojo frequently seems to be blessed, will be an actor.
The program has several dimensions, each one of them capable of reinforcing the others. These dimensions are:
• the internal management of the conservative party;
• the dominance over rival political groupings in England;
• the future of the UK;
• the constitutional architecture of the UK (or England, as the case may be);
• arrangements with the EU;
• arrangements with other countries/regions;
• and the direction and content of economic and social policies in England/UK.
Over the past years, plenty has been written about each of these things. However, they have often been treated separately; and they have rarely been considered under the single rubric of a Bojo approach.
