In light of the volatile social and political climate we are now experiencing it is very hard to imagine how any coalition can last beyond the next twelve months.
Sinn Féin’s traditional nationalist conservative base has been increasingly ignored by the present leadership who are now pursuing a largely liberal agenda. The party’s left wing / socialist manifesto on the issues of housing shortage, concerns with the health service and the roll back of the pension entitlement age mantra of voting for change could be viewed as being simply a populist ideal which was supported largely by those who were most likely to benefit and have been largely overtaken by events. The unprecedented fallout of from the Covid -19 crisis of mass unemployment and the collapse of the tourism market will almost certainly have the knock- on effect of releasing a large number of rental units onto the housing market while the vastly increased public spending on health and social care during the present crisis will mean that the push back of the pension entitlement age will be not even be considered. In the event of another early election Mary Lou McDonald may find that the surge in popularity for her party as shown in opinion polls before the onset of Covid-19 will collapse.
As the Covid-19 crisis worsened Micháel Martin made what many considered to be an ill -advised statement on radio in which he announced that he was ready to form a political alliance with Fine Gael in the national interest. Given Martin’s earlier reluctance to engage with either Sinn Féin or Fine Gael his earlier was seen as blatant opportunism by many, even within his own party and unless there is a change in leadership of Fianna Fáil it seems unlikely that there will be much support for a joint Fianna Fáil./Fine Gael Government.
Leo Varadkar may have gained a temporary Churchillian surge in popularity due his handling of the current crisis, but this popularity may be short lived as the perceived mishandling of the economy by Fine Gael and the austerity imposed on the electorate were reflected in the recent election and it may be difficult to obtain the support of left wing alliances such as People before Profit.
The number of independents and their diverse aims and ideals will make coalescing them into a unified whole a Herculean task-almost impossible at this time.
In the event of a Fine Gael/ Fianna Fáil coalition it may well be a case of a plague on both your houses as both run a grave risk of being viewed by the electorate as a single political entity in any future election.
The Green Party have declined to enter into coalition of any of the three main parties, citing concerns about the impossibility of obtaining their objectives due to a dearth of government investment in climate change objectives. However, the unexpected benefits to the earth’s atmosphere by the greatly diminished amount of air travel may concentrate the mind the electorate on the very real dangers of pollution and global warming to our world. In a greatly changed political and social landscape it is possible that, once this crisis has passed it and in the event of another early election, the Green party may well hold the balance of power in the formation of any future government.
